A variety of services are provided by project teams assembled by J. E. SINOR CONSULTANTS INC. The major divisions of activity include Market Analysis, Alternative Clean Fuels, Technical Process Studies, Economic Analysis, Resource Evaluation, Environmental Services, and Publications.

Product market analysis is of key importance in process design and planning for new facilities. To select the most profitable product slate and process configuration, a project sponsor must have the best available information about future prices of products, the market specifications for those products, and possible market volumes.

In the initial assessment, we assemble information on the end-use product specifications, and current and projected prices for each of the various products. We then analyze the plant netback values for each of the major products and minor byproducts on the selected product slates. The netback analysis will consider what transportation, downstream processing, and consumer retrofitting are necessary to utilize the planned product in an end use competing with an existing energy or chemical product whose price and/or value can be forecasted.

Capital and operating costs are estimated for all transportation, distribution, downstream processing, and consumer retrofitting stages which may be needed to convert a feedstock to a marketable form competing with established, conventional products. These capital and operating costs feed into a discounted cash flow rate of return analysis to estimate the unit cost of the steps along the plant-to-consumer path. The incremental costs of transportation, distribution, downstream processing, and consumer retrofitting are then subtracted from the forecasted prices at the point of consumption to obtain the plant netback value.

Strategic plans are formulated on the basis of projected trends in technology, markets and prices, and the actions of present or potential competitors. Technical competition analysis is carried out if needed.

A variety of services are offered in the area of clean-burning alternative transportation fuels, such as methanol, ethanol, compressed natural gas, liquefied natural gas, Fischer-Tropsch liquids, dimethyl ether, propane, hydrogen and reformulated gasoline. These services include industry surveys, market assessments, technology summaries, vehicle cost analysis, economic analysis, environmental comparisons, fuel price forecasts, regulatory analysis and competitor intelligence.

Studies have been carried out for the automotive sector to estimate the future performance potential of ethanol as an automotive fuel, to compare the relative benefits and economics of compressed natural gas versus liquefied natural gas, to compare the relative benefits and economics of compressed natural gas versus propane, to estimate long-term differential costs for alternative fuel vehicles, to make detailed emissions, performance and cost characterization of diesel engines utilizing alternative fuels, etc.

Company teams have conducted numerous technical process studies involving: natural gas conversion, oil shale, coal mining, coal conversion, oil sands, natural gas processing, coalbed methane utilization, methanol production, ethanol production, hydrogen production, enhanced oil recovery, chemical processing, etc. They have also performed a number of licensor evaluations for competing technology for various processes. A combination of technical skills and a strong business/economic orientation are used to make comparative evaluations of various technologies.

Most members of J. E. SINOR CONSULTANTS INC. are experienced in detailed economic feasibility assessments. They have assisted many companies in determining the economics of proposed new ventures, including:

• Coal gasification and liquefaction projects
• Coal mining, drying, beneficiation and transport
• Coalbed methane utilization
• Enhanced oil recovery techniques
• Ethanol manufacturing projects
• Liquefied natural gas supply
• Liquid fuels pipelines
• Methanol production
• Natural gas conversion to liquids
• Natural gas liquids extraction
• Natural gas purification
• Ocean wave energy
• Oil shale projects (both surface and modified in situ)
• Precious metals extraction
• Tar sands mining and extraction projects
• Tire pyrolysis
• Underground coal gasification projects
• Vehicle fleet fuel conversions

Conventional data concerning the capital and operating costs of a project, the schedule of project development and production; tax data and assumptions; production rates and prices; and the profitability objectives of the investor are used for computerized economic analysis.

Project rates of return are computed in various ways such as:

• Net present value
• Discounted cash flow rate of return
• Revenue requirement (threshold price and revenue factor)
• Simple payback
• Discounted payback
• Growth rate of return
• Present value ratio

Standard procedures are used to perform: (a) Deterministic analyses using "best guess" or expected values for each data item; (b) Sensitivity analyses showing the effect on profitability of changes in both internal and external economic parameters; and (c) Risk analysis based on user-specified probability distributions for the uncertain factors.

Services offered in the area of exploration and evaluation of resources include evaluations of the quantity, quality, and accessibility of an in-place natural resource; and estimates of production cost, selling price, and transportation costs for a project based on the resource. Resources that have been analyzed on one or more projects include, coal, lignite, oil shale, tar sands, gold, platinum, nahcolite, and natural gas. Specific activities covered include:

• Compilation of data: resource characterization; resource computation and quality evaluation; and definition and evaluation of geologic parameters affecting project planning.



• Feasibility studies: investigating the feasibility of developing natural resource properties including supervision or evaluation of studies performed by clients or other contractors.



• Economic evaluation: perform preliminary or detailed economic and financial venture analysis; determine fair market value for resource properties; determine commodity sale price for desired rates of return; business risk evaluation; long-term market forecasts.

Services are provided in the areas of environmental baseline surveys, permit acquisition, hazard evaluation, and mitigation strategy.

A related area of activity is the estimation of the costs and benefits associated with government actions and regulations. These have been prepared at the federal, state and local levels.

Expert witness services have been provided in several court cases concerned with the economic value of assets related to synthetic fuels.

THE SINOR SYNTHETIC FUELS REPORT is a quarterly publication which provides regular, exclusive, and comprehensive reportage on worldwide activities dealing with oil shale, tar sands, coal conversion and natural gas conversion to liquid fuels. It includes a yearly status summary of commercial projects in these areas.