"Many factors are now in place leading to the emergence of a pre-eminent ‘gas economy’ in the early decades of the century."
In a keynote speech to the world’s first online energy conference, sponsored by the World Energy Council and BP Amoco, R. Flury of BP Amoco Gas & Power described how many factors now in place are leading to the emergence of a pre-eminent "gas economy" in the early decades of the century.
This "gas economy" would be supplied from a truly global market consisting of large gas reservoirs geographically spread but linked to consumers by low-cost pipelines and/or cheap and scaleable liquefied natural gas facilities. Or through long-distance high-voltage electricity conduits or large tankers carrying liquid products manufactured from gas.
In a wide-ranging speech, Flury noted how gas would become the principal fuel for electricity generation in high-efficiency combined-cycle gas turbines. The chemicals industry would in large part be based upon gas feedstock using gas-to-liquids and/or gas-to-chemicals process technology. And gas could also power the transport sector, firstly as compressed natural gas in applications such as buses and taxis, and later as the primary feedstock for onboard fuel cells. Fuel-cell fuel could initially be manufactured as clean diesel and/or methanol in gas-to-liquids plants. Later, gas could be used as the fuel to generate hydrogen for direct use in onboard fuel cells.
Flury described how the technologies for delivering this vision of the gas economy have now largely been invented. But not all have been demonstrated at commercial scale and many technical issues remain to be solved. Nevertheless implementation of the vision has already started and the rate of gas market share growth will likely progress firstly for heat and power generation, secondly for gas-to-chemicals, and lastly gas for transport fuels.
Flury also emphasized natural gas as a cleaner-burning fuel for the power sector--in cutting down on carbon dioxide emissions. The growth in gas is seen as an essential component in developing a much needed "bridge to a renewables future." BP Amoco’s major investments in solar energy, where it is already the world’s largest producer of photovoltaic panels, signaled the company’s belief and commitment to that future.
But it is gas that will make the biggest contribution to the developed and developing world as countries seek to balance the often conflicting aims of growth and environmental performance.
During this transition period, natural gas will be one of the best sources for the hydrogen that will be used to build up the hydrogen economy. The use of hydrogen, or its derivatives such as methanol, is the most efficient source of "wells to wheels" energy known for transportation. It has the added bonus of being able to manage emissions such as CO2 centrally, rather than at each individual tailpipe.
Flury says that both static power and transport applications of fuel cells are likely to appear sooner than people think--with distributed power applications already happening, and "commercially viable" cars and buses on the road in 2004 from many major motor manufacturers.
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